A forthcoming Public Citizen analysis will describe the legal authorities the U.S. This model reflects our understanding of the optimal process for mRNA production, based in part on publicly available information, and is intended to convey the magnitude of resources required. None of the companies fully disclose their production process. Our analysis is limited by a lack of transparency.

Together, we describe how the world could produce eight billion doses in one year. Finally, we describe the raw materials, consumables, personnel, and facilities required to produce eight billion drug substance doses within an additional six months and costs, vial and filling line requirements for drug product manufacturing. Second, we discuss the practical steps required to setup mRNA facilities in six months, including technology transfer and capacity building. Many more manufacturing facilities can also be retrofitted to produce mRNA vaccines, compared to other kinds of vaccines, given both the small scale and “closed” nature of the process. Crucially, mRNA production facilities can be smaller, cheaper, and faster to establish. First, we describe the production process for mRNA vaccines, noting in particular the significant advantages of cell-free production. Raw material costs could come down with greater production volume and additional suppliers.

mRNA-1273, which uses a 100 μg dose, is the most resource intensive, followed by BNT162b2 (30 μg) and CVnCoV (12 μg).

The significant difference in resource estimates between the three vaccines reflect differences in mRNA dose. These materials currently cost more than materials for other kinds of vaccines. Raw materials are the major cost component for mRNA vaccines. ‡ We assumed there is sufficient drug product capacity and new facilities did not need to be constructed. ¥ This operating cost is calculated for the six month period required to produce 8 billion doses and it includes the annualized facility-dependent capital costs. ** Drug substance production lines at the 30L bioreactor working volume scale. * The values of the production requirements were calculated based on producing 8 billion vaccine doses within 6 months, as additional six months are required beforehand to construct, equip, validate, and start up production. Table 1: Summary of key resource estimates for producing 8 billion doses of mRNA vaccine. The capital cost for retrofitting facilities would be $3.2 billion, while the operating cost for the drug substance production campaign would be $17.5 billion. This would require 4,620 employees working at 55 production lines, which could be set up in 14 facilities. In the case of the NIH-Moderna vaccine, for example, we estimate that producing eight billion doses in one year would cost $23 billion. This entire analysis is presented for the National Institutes of Health-Moderna Covid-19 vaccine (mRNA-1273), the BioNTech-Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine (BNT162b2), and the CureVac vaccine (CVnCoV). Critically, given the adaptability of mRNA technology, it also would set up the infrastructure required to quickly address variants and future public health threats. This would be enough to cover 80% percent of the population-what some experts believe is necessary for achieving herd immunity-in low- and middle-income countries. Using computational process modelling, we show how the global community could set up regional hubs capable of producing eight billion mRNA vaccine doses by May 2022. In this report, we provide one path forward. What would it take to produce enough coronavirus vaccine for the world in one year? Today, BioNTech’s Marburg facility is producing millions of mRNA vaccine doses a week. But, in less than six months, the team switched from making cancer medicines to pumping out vaccines. The 300 staff at the facility had never worked with the new vaccine technology used by the company. Last September, a biotechnology company bought a manufacturing plant in a small German city.

Resources required for producing eight billion doses.

Description of the mRNA production process.

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